Paris Wheat Seen Falling on Fibonacci Breach: Technical Analysis
September 27, 2013
Sept 25th2013 Bloomberg Business Week
Milling wheat may slide near the lowest level in almost two years in Paris if futures breach a so-called Fibonacci resistance level, according to technical analysis by Arnaud Saulais at SCB.
Futures for November delivery on NYSE Liffe traded near resistance of about 184 euros ($248) a metric ton last week, representing 23.6 percent of the rally between the contract’s all-time low on Aug. 14 to a high on Aug. 27, said Saulais, a broker based in Nyon, Switzerland. That’s one of the levels singled out in Fibonacci analysis. If prices slide below that level, the decline may extend to 181.25 euros, the contract’s low and the least for most-active futures since December 2011, he said.
“Traders are looking carefully on the November contract at the low at about 184 euros, which is good support,” Saulais said by telephone yesterday. “After that would be the zone around 180 and 181 euros for technical support. If the 180 level is crossed, we could see further selling pressure on the market.”
The November contract is down about 3.5 percent since reaching a five-week high on Aug. 27, with global grain supplies set to rebound as U.S. farmers begin harvesting the largest corn crop ever. World production of wheat will be an all-time high of 708.89 million tons as harvests in Russia and eastern Europe recover from dry weather in the previous season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.